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Visualizing the Japanese Fertility Rate

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Japanese society has been experiencing a decline in the number of births.

Line graph of number of births in Japan by year

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

There may have been some improvements in the fertility rates at certain periods, but it has not been enough to stop the decline in the number of births.

Line graph of fertility rate in Japan by year

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

The drop in 1966 is due to a superstition:

The curse of the Fire-Horse: How superstition impacted fertility rates in Japan

Many Japanese families chose not to have children in 1966 due to their superstition of “Hinoe-Uma (Fire-Horse)”. Fire-Horse is the 43rd combination of the sexagenary cycle, which happens every 60 years. The superstition is that women born in this year of the “Fire-Horse” have a bad personality and will kill their future husband.

However, Japan is not unique in having low fertility rates.

Line graph showing decline in fertility rates in Japan and the world

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) is licensed under CC BY-4.0

There are some other countries that have a lower rate than Japan.

Bar graph of fertility rates by location in 2018

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) is licensed under CC BY-4.0

What is different about Japan, is that the decline started much earlier than other countries that currently have a low fertility rate.

Line graph comparing fertility rates of Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) is licensed under CC BY-4.0

The trends have been closer when compared to European nations with a low fertility rate, but the Japanese fertility rates were already lower in the 1960s.

Line graph comparing fertility rates of Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, and Portugal

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) is licensed under CC BY-4.0

But now, even some of the largest countries in the world are seeing their fertility rates drop.

Line graph comparing fertility rates of China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and the United States

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) is licensed under CC BY-4.0

And as a result of this global trend, many countries are seeing a low percentage of children:

Bar graph of countries by percentage of population ages 0-14

Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) is licensed under CC BY-4.0